Deadline 2030ish – How Cars May Change

When governments and car companies start planning for 2030 or 2035 they are no longer planning for the long term, but the midterm. The planning centers on getting more green vehicles on the market. Although the planning is technically midterm, they’re trying to look at the long term. Of course, “environmentally sound” is in the eye of the scientist. (Still haven’t found an sound way to mine or dispose of those batteries, have we?)

Cars which run on gas power are known by the acronym ICE for vehicles with an Internal Combustion Engine. The stated goal of this phase a “phase-out” of ICE cars.

The target in California doesn’t include heavier trucks but it does include off-road vehicles.

You will be able to buy a hybrid car in 2030, up until 2035.

52% vehicle sales will be all-electric by 2030, according to the latest figures. The plan is to breed a bunch more Elon Musks who will create another bunch of electric car start-ups by this date which will create this demand (or at least the public’s interest in these companies will create this demand). This distinction may be important. One obvious thorn in this plan is that Elon Musk (the 1st) is already moving his manufacture out of California as its too tax heavy.

A recent survey found that most people surveyed felt that these new start-ups will have a moderate effect on sales. Remember they are called start-ups, but these are also huge businesses selling thousands, even tens of thousands of cars.

Although 91% of those polled support the program (that’s not the same as wanting to buy an electric car by the way), only 77% felt it could be achieved without the subsidy of the government.

Manufacture Innovation Adoption (Er…Absorption)

It’s not the same throughout the industry. Ford and GM only went for a goal of 50% by 2030. Why is that particularly important to pay attention to? Because if history shows us anything in the car business its that these startups will eventually be swallowed up by a bigger company. So why not use the larger company you may ask. Traditionally, large companies get comfortable leading the market and miss opportunities to meet hidden demand. That’s a fancy way of saying they use there market position to sell cars that people don’t really want until people get so frustrated that they go start their own car company that does make a desirable product. After the new car company innovates, the established company buys them out and continues to incorporate the innovation. Okay that’s a pretty radical depiction of the situation, but on some level its true.

State Incentives

It seems that only a few states are currently offering real incentives for drivers of electric vehicles, such as Arizona, California, Colorado and Texas. Florida is the most populous state which is currently not considering an electric car revolution.

The margin of error for the studies of market adaption is somewhere between 20% and 90%, which is a wide to the point of being meaningless. Does it all come down to the mindset of the American consumer? Yes. Is the consumer fickle? YES!

The Rest of the World

It is a worldwide problem. China and Japan will also undergo a steep climb in car sales over the same period. Japan has plans to achieve total electric cars by the 2030s (though doesn’t give an exact year). They also plan to be totally carbon neutral by the year 2050.

Looking at French speaking Canada, the light duty ICE vehicles will no longer be on sale in Quebec. Something that may confuse you is the omission of a distinction between electric and hybrid vehicles. There is a rebate offered if you rent or purchase an electric vehicle (this offer does seem to differentiate between electric and hybrid) but it is unclear if this rule will remain in place by the end of the decade.

It remains to be seen how serious the governments of the world are. Also, it’s likely that the lack of distinction between hybrid and EV is owed to politicians hedging their bets against Consumers who aren’t ready to limit their travel to only 300 miles at a go.

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